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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance & Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he believes a customs pact has been made much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger & A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.